Citi Cuts Lithium Forecasts as Supply Surplus Risks Grow
The bank lowered near-term price estimates as slower battery demand and possible supply growth weigh on the market outlook.
Key takeaways
- Citi cut its three-month lithium carbonate and hydroxide forecasts to 12 thousand dollars per ton.
- China's most-traded lithium carbonate contract remained down more than 40% since late August.
- CATL received environmental approval for its Jianxiawo mine on October 30.
Citigroup cut its three-month price forecasts for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to 12 thousand dollars per ton from 20 thousand, citing weaker demand and uncertainty. It also lowered its spodumene forecast to 1,200 dollars per ton from 2 thousand.
The bank also reduced its price projections through the end of 2028. The report cited slower battery demand, trade-policy uncertainty and global economic concerns as factors weighing on the market.
Supply conditions are expected to improve in 2027, while the pace of demand growth remains unclear. The market may move from a deficit to balance this quarter, with a surplus possible over the following two years, according to the report.
In China, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 1.2% on Monday morning to 91 thousand 160 yuan per ton, about 13 thousand 710 dollars. It was still down more than 40% from late August.
CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi had been suspended in August. After the company received local environmental approval on October 30, CATL shares rose as much as 4.2% on the Shenzhen exchange.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
