Citi Sees Turkey’s Current-Account Deficit Reaching 2.7% of GDP
Citigroup economists cite higher energy costs as they forecast a wider deficit, despite an August surplus in Turkey’s current-account balance.
Key takeaways
- Citi forecasts the deficit will rise from 1.9% of GDP at end-2025 to 2.7% at end-2026.
- Turkey recorded a $4.053 billion current-account surplus in August.
Citigroup economists expect Turkey’s current-account deficit to widen to 2.7% of GDP by the end of 2026, from 1.9% at the end of 2025. They cited higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East.
Official data released Tuesday showed a $4.053 billion surplus in August. But the deficit for the first eight months of 2026 reached $31.5 billion, up $11.8 billion from the same period a year earlier, according to the economists.
They said the deterioration reflected an $11 billion drop in the core surplus and a $4.6 billion widening in the energy deficit. A $3.9 billion narrowing in the gold deficit partly offset those changes.
The economists said they saw limited evidence of a structural shift in the link between Turkey’s current-account balance and growth. They said lasting improvement would require lower energy prices, stronger competitiveness and lower import intensity.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
