IMF Cuts Turkey’s 2026 Growth Outlook, Raises Inflation Forecast
The fund sees slower Turkish growth this year and higher inflation through 2028 in its latest European regional outlook.
Key takeaways
- The IMF forecasts Turkey’s economy will grow 2.7% in 2026.
- The fund expects Turkish inflation to reach 31.2% in 2026.
- The IMF raised its inflation forecasts for Turkey through 2028.
The IMF lowered its forecast for Turkey’s 2026 economic growth to 2.7% and raised its inflation outlook to 31.2%, according to its October 2026 European Regional Economic Outlook.
Compared with its April projections, the fund cut its 2026 growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points. It expects growth of 3.6% in 2027 and 4% in 2028, raising those forecasts by 0.1 and 0.2 points, respectively.
The IMF now expects annual inflation in Turkey to reach 26.5% in 2027 and 20.6% in 2028. Those forecasts are 5.1 and 3.6 percentage points above its previous estimates.
Across Europe, the fund projects annual inflation of 5.8% in 2026, easing to 4.1% by 2028. It cited high energy prices, geopolitical risks, tariffs and rising bond yields among the pressures weighing on growth.
The IMF said expensive natural gas and refined oil products could keep inflation above targets. It also called for tighter monetary policy when needed and cautioned against expansionary fiscal policy.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
