October’s Stock Record Looks Stronger Beyond Its Volatile Reputation

October has averaged a 1.9% stock return, tying with November and July among the strongest months, according to Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace data. Stocks posted gains in 19 of the past 30 Octobers, a 63% win rate.

The month’s reputation for volatility is heavily influenced by 2008, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 17%. Excluding that year, October’s average return rises to about 2.7%. September, historically the weakest month, averaged a decline of 0.45%.

Investors still face concerns over the 10-year Treasury yield, which has touched its highest level since 2002. But recent inflation data and dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams led Goldman Sachs economists to say an October rate hike was unlikely.

Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said the firm pushed its forecast for a second rate increase to December. He also said the Federal Open Market Committee may decide further hikes are unnecessary.

On Thursday, all three major stock averages gained as technology shares rose following strong quarterly results from Micron. Looking toward year-end, strategists cited the coming earnings season and continued enthusiasm for AI as potential supports.

Janus Henderson Investors analyst Shaon Baqui said fundamentals were strengthening into year-end, citing accelerating hyperscaler growth rates, expanding backlogs and rising token growth.