Okta’s AI Security Rally Faces a Test at Investor Day

Okta shares had climbed more than 115% in 2026 ahead of the company’s investor meeting in Las Vegas, as investors bet that wider use of AI agents will raise demand for identity security. The meeting was part of Oktane, Okta’s annual conference, running September 22-24.

Needham analyst Mike Cikos raised his price target to $230 from $200 before the event and kept a Buy rating. He said investors would be watching for signs of early customer traction and feedback on Okta’s AI products.

The investor session offered management a chance to explain how AI security might support future growth. Okta’s pitch centers on giving software agents identities, limiting what they can access, and tracking their actions, much as companies already manage employee access.

The opportunity comes as Okta’s core business continues to grow. In its fiscal second quarter, revenue rose 11% year over year to $805 million, while subscription backlog expected to convert within 12 months increased 14% to $2.59 billion.

Okta forecast fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.216 billion to $3.226 billion, equal to 10% to 11% growth. Investors will want to know whether new AI products can add to that outlook, rather than simply reinforce the company’s existing identity business.

The security case is gaining attention across the industry. On September 22, Okta joined AWS, CrowdStrike, Google Cloud, Salesforce and other companies in forming the Blueprint Alliance, which aims to develop a shared framework for governing and securing AI agents.

Analyst price targets and conference announcements do not show how much revenue AI products will bring in. For Okta, the next test is whether customers adopt these tools at scale and whether that demand appears in recurring revenue and backlog.