Starlink’s Mobile Expansion Raises Questions for iPhone Sales
Bank of America modeled a scenario that could put five million iPhone sales at risk as SpaceX moves Starlink into mobile service.
Key takeaways
- A Bank of America scenario puts about five million iPhone sales at risk if 10% of major-carrier subscribers switch.
- Expansión reported sharp declines in AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile shares after the Starlink announcement.
- Analysts do not expect a significant competitive effect before Apple’s 2028 fiscal year.
A Bank of America scenario suggests Starlink Mobile could put about five million iPhone sales and $6 billion in revenue at risk. The estimate assumes 10% of subscribers at the three largest U.S. mobile operators switch to Starlink.
Expansión reported that telecom shares fell after SpaceX said Starlink would become a mobile operator. AT&T dropped 9.85%, Verizon fell 8.75% and T-Mobile lost 13.27%.
Bank of America analysts said the carriers sell about 53 million iPhones a year and offer an average promotional credit of roughly $800 per device. Those subsidies help customers choose premium models and upgrade phones. But carriers might increase promotions to keep subscribers, limiting any effect on iPhone sales.
Starlink Mobile’s compatibility with existing smartphones also means customers could change networks and keep using an iPhone. Bank of America identified changes to carrier subsidies, a possible SpaceX-branded phone and a combination of Tesla, SpaceX and Grok services as potential competitive risks.
SpaceX has agreed to buy Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, following about $17 billion in spectrum purchases from EchoStar. Bank of America analysts said infrastructure investment and regulatory processes make a significant competitive effect unlikely before Apple’s 2028 fiscal year.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
