Turkey Inflation Expectations Edge Higher in October Survey
Central bank survey respondents raised their 12-month inflation forecast, while trimming their 2026 growth outlook and year-end dollar forecast.
Key takeaways
- The 12-month inflation expectation rose to 23.89% from 23.70%.
- Respondents lowered their 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0%.
Respondents to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s October survey raised their 12-month inflation expectation to 23.89% from 23.70%. Their 2026 year-end consumer inflation forecast edged up to 29.63% from 29.61%.
The survey included 71 participants from the real and financial sectors, according to Dünya. The 24-month inflation expectation fell to 17.94% from 18.32%.
Respondents forecast the dollar at 51.55 lira at the end of 2026, down from 51.57 lira in the previous survey. Their 12-month exchange-rate expectation rose to 59.26 lira from 58.60 lira.
The expected overnight rate for the current month fell to 36% from 37%, while the expected policy rate at the October meeting was 36%. Respondents lowered their 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0%; the 2027 forecast remained at 3.9%.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
