VFVA’s Past Returns Point to $18,020 by September 2031

A $10,000 investment in Vanguard’s U.S. Value Factor ETF, ticker VFVA, would grow to about $18,020 by September 2031 if it repeated its past five-year annualized return of 12.5%. A faster run matching its latest three-year pace would bring the estimate to $23,564.

Those figures are scenarios, not forecasts from Vanguard. They extend past returns across another five years, even though stock prices and fund performance can change sharply over that span.

VFVA holds 687 value stocks across company sizes, according to the Motley Fool. Vanguard’s fund documents say it seeks stocks priced relatively low compared with their underlying fundamentals. Its annual operating expense ratio is 0.13%.

The fund offers exposure beyond the largest growth and technology names. But a value strategy can lag when investors favor faster-growing companies, and a broad portfolio does not prevent losses when the overall stock market falls.

Vanguard’s latest capital-market model provides a more cautious benchmark. Its July 2026 outlook put expected annualized returns for U.S. value stocks at 6.4% to 8.4% over 10 years, compared with 3.6% to 5.6% for U.S. growth stocks. Those estimates cover asset classes, not VFVA specifically.

The difference matters: VFVA’s 12.5% five-year history is well above Vanguard’s current long-term value range. That does not make either number a promise; the fund’s returns depend on its holdings and market conditions.

Investors weighing the ETF can watch whether value stocks keep outperforming growth shares and whether VFVA’s gains persist over a longer period. The 2031 totals also exclude any taxes an investor may owe when selling shares.