Bitcoin Traders Brace for Fed’s First Hike in Three Years

Bitcoin is hovering near $77,000 as traders head into a Federal Reserve decision that markets increasingly expect to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, September 16.

That would be the Fed’s first increase in three years, reversing the easier-policy narrative that had helped lift speculative assets through much of 2026. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have shifted toward a hike call after August inflation remained sticky and energy prices surged, bringing the debate back to how restrictive policy may become rather than whether the central bank will tighten at all.

The pressure is arriving through several channels at once. August consumer prices rose 0.4% from the prior month, while annual inflation reached 3.4%, according to data released before the meeting. Brent crude has also climbed above $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions, raising the risk that energy costs will keep feeding through to broader prices.

Treasury yields have responded sharply. The 10-year yield recently approached 5%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.2%, making cash and government debt more competitive with assets that offer no income. The dollar has strengthened as well. For crypto, that combination tends to drain liquidity from the margins first, where leveraged positions and thinner order books can turn a modest policy surprise into a violent move.

Bitcoin has held above the mid-$70,000s, but ether and XRP have shown greater sensitivity during recent bouts of risk reduction. Ether was trading around $2,500, while XRP remained near $1.35 to $1.40 in recent sessions. A hike that is fully priced may produce only a brief selloff. A hawkish forecast for additional increases, however, would give traders a fresh reason to cut exposure.

The Fed’s updated projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will therefore matter as much as the decision itself. Investors will look for clues on whether the September move is an inflation response forced by market conditions or the beginning of a longer tightening cycle.

Crypto also faces event risk beyond Washington. A possible CLARITY Act vote and the Bank of Japan’s policy decision are scheduled for the same week, leaving bitcoin, ether and XRP exposed to several liquidity shocks in quick succession.