Europe Enters Winter With Gas Storage Below Seasonal Norms

Europe is heading into winter with gas storage at about 67% full in September, below the seasonal average of about 80%, as supply constraints and high energy prices threaten households and industry.

The European Union is estimated to have paid an extra €100 billion for oil and gas so far this year. Natural gas prices in Europe have more than doubled since the outbreak of the war in Iran, according to OilPrice.com. The report said Germany’s storage was roughly half full and the country was expected to miss its 80% target.

Disruptions to energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up costs. Between September 25, 2025, and 2026, oil prices rose 65%, diesel prices 45% and jet fuel prices 112%, the report said. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned of “very high” prices, but said he did not expect supply issues.

The outlook remains exposed to risks including threats to shipments and energy infrastructure in the Middle East, as well as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The report said the El Niño weather cycle could also add uncertainty to winter gas demand. More US liquefied natural gas cargoes are heading to Europe, but the report said those supplies can only partly fill the gap.

High fuel costs could also weigh on businesses and jobs. The Item Club forecast that as many as 163,000 UK jobs could be lost in 2026 in relation to the war, mainly in manufacturing-heavy regions. The report said companies facing unaffordable or insufficient fuel could suspend operations, while governments may intervene to protect access to energy.