Foreigners’ Turkish Lira Positions Reach $132 Billion, QNB Says
QNB economists estimate carry trade holdings near $40 billion, while foreign investors’ total lira positions reached $132 billion.
Key takeaways
- QNB economists put foreign investors’ carry trade stock near $40 billion.
- Foreign investors’ total Turkish lira positions reached $132 billion, including $39 billion in equities.
- The carry trade estimate is near its highest level since 2019, below a 2018 peak of $63 billion.
Foreign investors’ carry trade stock in Turkey is about $40 billion, near its highest level since 2019, according to an analysis by QNB economists. Their estimate puts foreign investors’ total Turkish lira positions at $132 billion.
The total includes $93 billion in interest-bearing investments and $39 billion in equities, the analysis said. It estimated the carry trade position using indirect data, including banks’ off-balance-sheet positions, because direct figures for these transactions are not published.
For its latest calculation, the analysis considered companies’ net $7.8 billion short foreign-exchange position in July, banks’ $48.3 billion long position in forward foreign-exchange and swap transactions, and the central bank’s $0.2 billion forward sale position. The historical peak was $63 billion in 2018.
Foreign investors held $27.5 billion in lira deposits as of July, according to the analysis. It said the amount had nearly doubled over three years, while cautioning that not all deposits should be viewed as fast-moving investments like carry trades.
The analysis also noted that foreign investors held $17.1 billion in government bonds and $3.6 billion in domestic private-sector bonds at the end of September. It put their investment-fund portfolio at $10.6 billion in July, with balance-of-payments data indicating a $0.6 billion increase in August.
This article was produced with the help of AI technology. Based on reporting by the outlets listed above.
