Goldman Links Record-Weak Consumer Mood to Falling Happiness

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in September, its second-lowest reading on record, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey. Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs says broader unhappiness may help explain why Americans feel so pessimistic.

The index dropped 7.5% from August and 13.2% from a year earlier. The only lower reading was 44.8 in May, the university’s data show.

Briggs wrote to clients that weak economic sentiment may reflect “a more fundamental, downbeat assessment of the state of the world,” rather than views about the economy alone, CNBC reported. His argument draws on a separate measure of how people describe their lives.

In the University of Chicago’s General Social Survey, the share of respondents who said they were “very happy” fell to 23% in 2024 from 31% in 2016. The share saying they were “not too happy” rose from 13% to 20%.

Briggs also pointed to declining trust in public institutions. In his analysis, that erosion accounted for a disproportionate share of the recent drop in happiness, while reported well-being fell faster than satisfaction with personal finances.

The Michigan survey measures views of household finances, business conditions and buying conditions. Its September reading showed expectations weakening faster than current assessments: the expectations index fell 11.1% from August, while the current-conditions measure declined 1.9%.

The findings suggest consumer surveys may capture more than concerns about prices or incomes. But the happiness data does not establish that economic pressures are irrelevant to how people feel.

The university plans to release its final September survey on September 25. That update will show whether the preliminary 47.8 reading holds.