Nucor, Steel Dynamics Shares Slip on Q3 Forecasts

Nucor and Steel Dynamics shares fell on September 18 after the U.S. steelmakers issued third-quarter profit forecasts below analyst expectations. Nucor projected earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per share, while Steel Dynamics forecast $5.34 to $5.38.

Both outlooks still point to a sharp improvement from a year earlier. Nucor earned $2.63 per share in the third quarter of 2025; Steel Dynamics earned $2.74. Their forecasts also exceed the companies’ second-quarter results of $5.04 and $3.69, respectively.

Nucor’s comparison with the prior quarter is complicated by unusual benefits. Its second-quarter results included a $130 million refund tied to past raw-material purchases and a $61 million gain in the value of its Helion investment, neither of which it expects to repeat.

The companies cited different sources of support for steel earnings. Nucor expects higher steel prices and stable mill volumes to lift its steel-mill results. Steel Dynamics said higher selling prices, lower scrap costs and record shipments should expand profits from its steel operations.

Steel Dynamics also reported a fabrication backlog nearly 50% larger than a year earlier, extending through the first quarter of 2027. The company said orders were supported by construction, data-center and warehouse projects, manufacturing and healthcare.

Nucor’s recent shipment figures offer another sign of demand. In July, the company said investment across key U.S. industries helped it post a second consecutive quarterly record for steel-mill shipments.

Those indicators do not remove the risk of a steel downturn. Prices, scrap costs and customer orders can shift, while a slowdown in construction or industrial investment could weaken shipments and margins.

Investors will get updated results in October. Steel Dynamics plans to report on October 19, and Nucor on October 26; the figures will show how closely actual earnings track the forecasts that disappointed the market.