ON Sets Higher 2030 Targets as Shares Slide on Investor Day

ON Semiconductor set higher growth goals through 2030 at its September 16 investor day, including a target for revenue to grow 12% to 14% annually. Shares fell 9.02% that day, closing at $66.60, before recovering to $74.10 by September 23.

The new revenue target compares with the 10% to 12% annual growth goal in onsemi’s earlier plan. Using 2026 estimates as its starting point, the company outlined a path to nearly $11 billion in revenue by 2030, according to its presentation.

AI data centers are a key part of that forecast. Onsemi expects related revenue to more than double in 2026, double again in 2027 and exceed $2.5 billion in 2030. Executives linked the opportunity to rising demand for chips that manage power inside increasingly energy-hungry data centers.

The company also projected non-GAAP gross margin, the share of sales left after production costs, rising from about 40% in 2026 to 53% in 2030. It expects free cash flow to more than double to roughly $3.5 billion a year by then, according to its financial outlook.

One point for investors to separate is the size of the market opportunity. Onsemi presented a $213 billion addressable market at the event; its June announcement of the planned Synaptics acquisition cited $243 billion, including an additional $30 billion tied to the deal. Synaptics remains a pending acquisition.

The share-price drop showed that ambitious targets did not immediately ease investor concerns. The stock had rebounded by September 23, but the event-day selloff made execution the central test: onsemi must turn its AI forecasts and margin plans into reported results.

Investors can track whether AI data-center sales rise as projected and whether margins improve alongside them. Those milestones will help show if the company can deliver its 2030 plan while integrating Synaptics.