Sandisk’s Ambitious 2030 Targets Meet a Tough Stock-Valuation Test

Sandisk shares traded near $1,790 when Motley Fool analyst Daniel Sparks argued the stock may reach only the low $2,000s by 2030. That would leave a relatively small gain over roughly four years, despite the company’s strong growth outlook.

The company’s August forecast covers fiscal 2028 through 2030. Sandisk expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-teens rate and adjusted free cash flow, the cash left after operating and investment costs, to reach about half of revenue.

Those targets follow a sharp turnaround. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 175% to $20.2 billion, while the company posted $11.4 billion in net income after losses in fiscal 2025. Fourth-quarter revenue climbed 51% from the prior quarter to $9.0 billion.

AI data centers have become a major growth driver. Sandisk’s data-center revenue reached $5.2 billion in fiscal 2026, up from $960 million a year earlier. For fiscal first-quarter 2027, the company forecast revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion.

Sandisk says new customer agreements cover about half its expected supply in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028. The contracts include minimum financial guarantees, which may make demand and cash flow more predictable, but they do not eliminate the risks of a downturn.

The warning is the memory business’s history of sharp cycles. Sandisk’s gross margin was 30.1% in fiscal 2025, then rose to 71.5% for fiscal 2026. Management’s roughly 80% long-term margin target would require unusually strong profitability to persist.

Sparks’s valuation scenarios reflect that uncertainty. If fiscal 2030 cash flow falls well short of the company’s model, he sees a share price near $1,100 to $1,300; if the targets hold, his upper case reaches $2,700 to $3,400. His central estimate is in the low $2,000s.

Investors will be watching whether AI-related demand and customer contracts support the projected margins as Sandisk expands. The next test is whether quarterly results can sustain the recent pace without relying on today’s tight memory market.