Trump’s Russian Diesel Plan Faces a Supply-Side Reality Check

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Russian diesel plan is unlikely to bring a sharp near-term price drop. Our World in Data estimates the 2.2 million barrels Russia was set to deliver immediately would not cover the United States’ roughly 4 million-barrel daily demand.

Trump said on Oct. 9 that he would temporarily suspend sanctions on Russia and import its diesel, predicting prices would fall rapidly. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed the supply deal on Oct. 13.

Supply constraints remain a central concern for analysts. Samina Sultan of the German Economic Institute cited the Iran war and the simultaneous closure of the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits as causes of production losses and more difficult fuel transport.

Kpler data cited in the reports show about 13.5 million barrels of crude oil a day passing through Hormuz again. Refined products such as diesel are running at about 677 thousand barrels a day, down from 3.6 million before the war.

The EIA data cited put U.S. diesel prices at $6.30 a gallon, up about 60% over 12 months. Even the full 35.8 million barrels Trump cited would equal only about nine days of U.S. domestic use, according to Our World in Data.

ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski warned that an export ban would shift shortages elsewhere rather than resolve them, while pushing up global prices. Sultan said the administration had dropped the export restriction idea, citing the risk of higher U.S. prices.