Turkey’s Current-Account Deficit Forecast Rises to $58 Billion-$60 Billion

Sinan Alçın raised his forecast for Turkey’s 2026 current-account deficit to $58 billion-$60 billion, saying higher energy costs are adding pressure. The deficit reached $44 billion in the first eight months of the year, he said.

Alçın said Turkey ended 2025 with a current-account deficit of about $25 billion. He said the 2026 shortfall could push the deficit above 3% of gross domestic product.

Energy and financing pressure

Alçın pointed to crude prices remaining above $100 after the Strait of Hormuz crisis as a key risk. He said Turkey’s reliance on imported energy, raw materials and intermediate goods means rising production can also increase the current-account deficit.

He said the deficit does not by itself mean a crisis. The more important issue is how it is financed: according to Alçın, central bank reserves covered a significant share of the financing in 2026.

Alçın also said declines in foreign direct and portfolio investment, accelerated by the fund crisis and domestic political developments, have made reserve management more important.

Market and global risks

Trading volume and the number of trades on Borsa Istanbul have fallen by about half, according to the program. Alçın said a lasting recovery depends on stopping the damage from the fund crisis and restoring investor confidence about how losses and liquidation will be handled.

He said the market could develop healthier pricing after the crisis, with fewer manipulative moves and prices closer to companies’ underlying values. He also called for stronger corporate governance before and after public offerings.

The program also examined global debt risks flagged by the IMF. Alçın said the value of global goods and services was about $85 trillion, compared with roughly $300 trillion in money circulating alongside debt. He argued that a sharp correction could trigger a major global financial crisis similar to 2008.

He also identified persistently high U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, China’s rise and trade tensions as pressures on the global financial system. Alçın said yields had struggled to stay below 5%, raising governments’ borrowing costs and reducing investors’ appetite for long-term risk.