Wheat Futures Split After Bearish Global Supply Revision

Chicago wheat futures clawed back part of Friday’s selloff Monday, but the broader complex stayed unsettled as traders digested a larger global supply cushion and lackluster export demand.

Chicago soft red winter wheat finished with contracts ranging from down 3 1/4 cents to up 4 1/4 cents. Kansas City hard red winter wheat was mixed, moving from a 6-cent loss to a 3 1/2-cent gain, while Minneapolis spring wheat also posted a split session. The September contracts expired Monday, shifting attention toward December delivery and the market’s next demand signal.

The pressure began with Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture supply-and-demand report. USDA left the U.S. wheat balance sheet largely unchanged, keeping projected 2026/27 ending stocks at 717 million bushels and production at roughly 1.53 billion bushels. That stable domestic outlook offered little fuel for a sustained rally.

The global figures were less forgiving. USDA raised 2026/27 world wheat ending stocks by 3.04 million metric tons to 276.29 million, while increasing projected production and trimming global trade. Larger expected crops in Australia and Canada more than offset reductions for Russia and Ukraine, leaving importers with less urgency to chase U.S. supplies.

Export demand has not yet filled that gap. U.S. wheat sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 194,233 metric tons in the week ended September 3, according to USDA data cited by market analysts. The result fell short of trade expectations and was down sharply from the comparable week a year earlier.

That combination has put the market in a tug-of-war. World supply looks comfortable on paper, but Black Sea logistics remain a live variable, and the U.S. harvest data will become more concrete when USDA releases its Small Grains Summary on September 30. Until then, traders are likely to price wheat through incremental export sales, currency moves and any disruption to shipments from major exporters.

For now, the futures curve is signaling hesitation rather than conviction. Chicago wheat found buyers after its steep weekly decline, but the rebound was too narrow to erase the bearish weight hanging over the global balance sheet.