ADM and Bunge Could Gain From New China Farm Deals

Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge could benefit if President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agree to expand farm trade. Their Washington summit is scheduled for September 24-25, with soybean purchases and tariff relief among the issues drawing attention from agriculture markets.

More Chinese orders could lift U.S. crop exports and add business for companies that buy, process and ship agricultural commodities. ADM’s global grain network and Bunge’s expanded trading footprint give both exposure, though any benefit depends on purchases actually being made.

ADM’s recent results show strength beyond a potential China deal. Its second-quarter adjusted earnings were $1.84 per share, up from 93 cents a year earlier. The company raised its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.15-$5.60 per share, citing stronger crushing and ethanol businesses and a supportive biofuels environment.

Bunge raised its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to $9.25-$9.75 per share from $9-$9.50. Its expanded business after combining with Viterra gives it a broader global network, but the company also lowered its outlook for grain merchandising and milling versus its prior forecast.

The trade opportunity is real, but existing commitments are not a guarantee of new revenue. The White House said in May that China had agreed to buy at least $17 billion of U.S. farm goods annually, in addition to a 25-million-metric-ton soybean pledge. U.S. officials estimate those purchases could total about $30 billion a year, but fulfillment remains uncertain.

Recent buying offers some support: China had booked nearly 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2026-27 marketing year, according to USDA data cited by S&P Global. Yet tariffs still make U.S. soybeans more expensive for Chinese buyers than Brazilian supplies, leaving a key obstacle in place.

Investors will be watching for concrete tariff changes or fresh purchase commitments, not just warm summit language. If trade opens further, both companies could see higher volumes; if pledges stall, their earnings will still hinge on processing margins, biofuel policy and global crop flows.