ADM’s 2026 Rally Has Left the Nasdaq Far Behind

ADM shares have climbed more than 50% in 2026, a striking reversal for a company whose stock spent much of the previous year under pressure from weak commodity cycles, policy uncertainty and an accounting investigation. The Nasdaq Composite, by comparison, has gained roughly 11% year to date through September 15.

The rally has not been a simple bet on higher grain prices. ADM has benefited from wider crushing margins, stronger ethanol economics and a more favorable U.S. biofuel-policy backdrop after renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027 were finalized. Its global origination and processing network has also helped the company capture value despite uneven trade flows and volatile crop markets.

Second-quarter results gave investors a fundamental reason to chase the stock. ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.84, up from 93 cents a year earlier, while total segment operating profit rose 75% to $1.45 billion. Ag Services and Oilseeds led the advance, with operating profit jumping 129% as crushing and agricultural services margins expanded.

The improvement was broad rather than confined to the grain complex. Nutrition operating profit increased 51% to $172 million, helped by stronger Flavors performance and progress at the Decatur East facility. Carbohydrate Solutions added another 22% as ethanol margins improved.

Management responded by lifting its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to approximately $5.15 to $5.60, up from a previous range of $4.15 to $4.70. That revision helped validate the share-price move, but it also raises the bar for the second half of the year.

At about $86.60 on September 15, ADM traded above the average analyst price target of roughly $80.10. The consensus rating remained Hold, according to market data compiled by StockAnalysis, with targets ranging from $60 to $95. That gap signals a market increasingly confident in near-term earnings, while analysts remain wary of how long biofuel incentives, energy prices and crushing margins can support profits.

ADM also faces familiar agricultural risks: weather disruptions, geopolitical shocks, shifting trade policy and weaker contributions from Wilmar. The stock is outperforming the Nasdaq decisively. The harder question is whether earnings can keep pace with the rally.