AES Beats Utility ETF as $15 Buyout Caps Its Upside

AES shares rose about 1.4% over the three months through September 22, while the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) fell 9.2%, according to Barchart data. The contrast puts AES ahead of its sector benchmark despite a steep pullback in utility shares.

The comparison is striking, but AES’s share price is tied to a pending acquisition. On September 22, the stock closed at $14.82, just below the consortium’s $15-a-share cash offer.

Global Infrastructure Partners, part of BlackRock, and EQT Infrastructure VI agreed to buy AES with co-investors CalPERS and Qatar Investment Authority. The deal values AES at about $10.7 billion in equity and $33.4 billion including debt, according to the company.

AES shareholders approved the transaction in June. On September 17, Ohio regulators approved the change of control of AES Ohio, a subsidiary, but AES told the Securities and Exchange Commission that additional regulatory approvals and other closing conditions remain.

The offer price leaves about 18 cents per share between the September 22 close and the cash consideration, or roughly 1.2% before dividends. That gap reflects limited potential upside if the deal closes as planned, alongside the risk that closing takes time or conditions are not met.

The transaction is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. Until then, AES remains publicly traded, and its stock can move with both utility-sector sentiment and investors’ assessment of the deal’s timing and prospects.

XLU provides a sector-wide comparison, not a direct match for AES’s mix of power generation and regulated utility operations. The recent performance gap therefore shows relative share-price resilience, but does not by itself establish that AES’s underlying business has strengthened.