Apple’s Foldable Debut Threatens Samsung’s Lead in 2026

Five million units would be an extraordinary opening salvo for a product category that still represents less than 5% of global smartphone sales. That is TrendForce’s forecast for Apple’s iPhone Duo in 2026, giving the company an estimated 24.8% share of the foldable market in its first year.

Apple unveiled the Duo on September 9, with sales scheduled to begin October 23. The inward-folding phone opens into a 7.6-inch display, carries a 5.4-inch outer screen and starts at $1,999, making it the most expensive iPhone yet. It also supports Apple Pencil input and split-screen multitasking through iOS 27.

The forecast does not put Apple on top immediately. TrendForce expects Samsung Electronics to ship about 7.1 million foldables in 2026, retaining a 35.1% share. Huawei is projected at roughly 5 million units, also representing 24.8% of the market. Apple would therefore enter as the second-largest brand, but with little room between itself and Huawei.

The broader numbers are less exuberant. TrendForce sees global foldable shipments reaching approximately 20.2 million units next year, up only 0.5% from 2025. Excluding Apple, Android foldable shipments are expected to fall more than 20% to around 15.2 million units, as higher component costs pressure manufacturers and consumers balk at premium pricing.

That makes Apple’s launch more than a market-share contest. Its volume could help suppliers scale production of ultra-thin glass, flexible OLED panels, hinges and support structures, while forcing rivals to improve durability and reduce the visible crease that has limited foldables’ appeal. TrendForce said the Duo uses a 10-layer inner display stack and a nano-texture treatment intended to make the crease less noticeable.

Samsung still has the advantages of a seven-year product head start, broader channel reach and a more mature foldable lineup. Its Galaxy Z Fold 8 starts at $1,899, undercutting the Duo by $100, and is thinner and lighter.

Apple’s wager is that ecosystem loyalty and software polish will outweigh those hardware advantages. The price will test that theory quickly.