Carnival Trades Near Six-Month Low as Earnings Test Value Case

Carnival shares closed at $22.31 on Sept. 21, near a six-month low of $21.84, as value investors assessed the cruise operator ahead of its Sept. 29 earnings report. At that price, its shares traded at roughly 10 times the company’s $2.22 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for 2026.

That multiple is below the roughly 13 times average cited for Carnival over the past two years. But a lower valuation is not a guarantee of a rebound: investors will look for signs that earnings can hold up against fuel costs and weaker pricing in some markets.

Analysts surveyed by Zacks expected third-quarter revenue of $8.38 billion and earnings of $1.36 a share. Revenue would be up about 2.8% from a year earlier, while earnings would be down nearly 5%.

Carnival’s latest results showed why investors remain interested. For the quarter ended May 31, the company reported $6.7 billion in revenue and $569 million in adjusted net income. It also said bookings for the rest of 2026 were running ahead of last year, at historically high prices.

The company said it was 93% booked for 2026 and held a record $9 billion in customer deposits as of May 31. Those figures offer visibility into demand, though bookings alone do not settle questions about ticket prices, onboard spending or profit margins.

Fuel remains a key pressure point. Carnival said fuel prices were nearly 30% higher year over year in its second quarter, while improved fuel efficiency helped offset part of the increase. Its June outlook also put full-year adjusted earnings at about $2.22 per share.

Debt adds another consideration for investors comparing Carnival with less leveraged companies. Its net debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio was 3.1 times at the end of May, although Carnival said that was more than half a point lower than a year earlier.

The Sept. 29 report will show whether recent bookings are translating into revenue and whether Carnival maintains its earnings outlook. Investors will also be watching management’s comments on fuel, pricing and the pace of debt reduction.