CF Industries Outpaces Agribusiness Stocks With 59% 2026 Gain

CF Industries shares gained 59.4% year to date through September 21, far ahead of the VanEck Agribusiness ETF’s 15.4% rise, according to Barchart’s September 22 comparison. Corteva shares gained 18% over the same period.

CF also outperformed over the latest three-month stretch, rising 19.8% against the ETF’s 9.2%. Still, at $123.27 on September 21, the fertilizer producer traded 13.2% below its March 30 high of $141.96.

The rally has coincided with stronger financial results and tighter nitrogen supply. CF reported first-half net earnings of $1.34 billion, up from $698 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.18 billion, compared with $1.41 billion.

Sales climbed 18.4% to $4.21 billion, helped by higher average selling prices. The company’s August earnings release cited a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance, including supply disruptions linked to geopolitical events.

The earnings jump was not all from ongoing operations: first-half results included a roughly $170 million litigation-settlement gain. Sales volumes also fell 11% year over year, a reminder that higher prices, not greater shipments, drove much of the revenue increase.

CF produced about 4.9 million tons of ammonia in the first half and ran at 98% of available capacity. Management said it expects nitrogen supply and demand conditions to remain constructive into 2027, leaving prices and supply disruptions key factors for investors to watch.

Analyst sentiment is more cautious than the share performance. Barchart’s comparison put the consensus rating at Hold among 19 analysts, with an average price target of $119.74, below the September 21 closing price.

The gap points to a central question for the stock: whether strong nitrogen pricing can keep supporting earnings after a steep run-up. CF’s shares rose 44.9% over the prior 12 months, compared with 14% for the agribusiness ETF.