Expedia Outpaces Consumer Stocks Over One Year, but Momentum Has Slowed

Expedia Group shares have outperformed the consumer-discretionary sector over the past year, even as a recent drop has erased much of their 2026 gain. EXPE closed at $280.70 on September 22, up 26.5% over 12 months, while the XLY sector ETF was down about 6%, according to recent return data.

The year-to-date comparison is narrower. Expedia’s total return was about negative 0.4% through September 22, compared with roughly negative 5.4% for XLY. So the company has held up better than the sector, but its shares have not advanced this year.

A pullback has sharpened that contrast. Expedia closed about 18% below its August 26 high of $342, after losing ground in September. The stock fell 0.1% on September 22.

The business reported strong second-quarter results. On August 5, Expedia said gross bookings rose 12% year over year to $33.9 billion and revenue increased 14% to $4.3 billion. The company also raised its full-year outlook for bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

But user growth is a concern for investors. Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost downgraded Expedia to Underweight on September 16, setting a $235 price target. The bank said Expedia’s monthly active users were flat year over year in the second quarter, while Booking Holdings grew about 6% and Airbnb about 10%.

That puts the performance question in two time frames: Expedia has beaten the sector over a year and year to date, but recent weakness reflects sharper scrutiny of its competitive position. The next test is whether user growth improves while the company delivers on its raised outlook.

Investors will also weigh whether fast booking growth can continue without heavier marketing costs. Expedia’s second-quarter results showed bookings and revenue expanding, but the rival user-growth gap gives analysts a clear metric to watch.