Natera Remains Druckenmiller’s Top Holding, but Risks Are Rising

Natera generated $752.8 million in second-quarter revenue, up 37.7% from a year earlier, while Stanley Druckenmiller kept the diagnostics company as his largest disclosed equity position for an eighth consecutive quarter.

Duquesne Family Office’s latest 13F, filed August 14 for the period ended June 30, showed 3.19 million Natera shares worth about $865 million. That represented roughly 16.6% of the firm’s reported portfolio, dwarfing its next-largest positions in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and STMicroelectronics. Duquesne added about 123,000 Natera shares during the quarter.

The attraction is not a single laboratory test. Natera has been building a portfolio around molecular diagnostics, with Signatera cancer-monitoring tests at the center. The company also sells Panorama prenatal screening and Prospera tests for organ-transplant monitoring, giving it several avenues for volume growth as reimbursement and clinical adoption expand.

Management raised its 2026 revenue forecast in August to between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion, lifting the midpoint by $100 million. Natera also processed more than one million tests for a second straight quarter, and said oncology volumes posted their strongest sequential increase to date. Signatera received three regulatory approvals during the quarter, while Medicare coverage expanded for Prospera.

That is the bullish case. The less comfortable part is that Natera is still losing money. Its first-half net loss reached $152.1 million, according to its second-quarter filing, even as revenue climbed rapidly. Stock-based compensation totaled nearly $198.2 million during the first six months, and the company’s share count rose from 139.7 million at the end of 2025 to 143.6 million by June 30.

Investors are also paying a substantial price for the growth. Natera’s market value stood near $50 billion on September 16, 2026, while the company remained unprofitable on a GAAP basis. That leaves the stock exposed if test volumes slow, insurers challenge reimbursement rates or regulatory approvals fail to translate into durable demand.

Druckenmiller’s persistence is meaningful. It is not a substitute for valuation discipline. Natera looks like a compelling growth story, but “no-brainer” is a dangerous label for a loss-making healthcare stock priced for continued execution.