Oil, AI Fears and Fed Bets Set Up a Volatile Monday

A sudden jump in crude prices and a fresh warning from AI executives gave investors little reason to chase Friday’s rally when U.S. markets prepared to open Monday, September 14.

Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 1.5% in early trading, while S&P 500 futures fell roughly 0.6% and Dow futures slipped 0.2%, according to market data cited by TipRanks. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced the steepest pressure as investors reassessed whether the spending boom behind chip stocks can continue at its current pace.

Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei urged the AI industry to slow development of its most advanced models and add stronger safety controls. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman supported the idea, while xAI chief Elon Musk also endorsed it. That unusual alignment rattled a trade that has rewarded companies tied to accelerating computing demand, with Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Micron among the names under pressure before the bell.

Oil supplied a second shock. Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded near $103 after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline following drone attacks. A planned meeting between Iran and Gulf states about the Strait of Hormuz was postponed, keeping the market focused on whether the conflict will disrupt shipping for longer.

The energy spike arrived just as bond yields were approaching a level that can reshape equity valuations. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.96% in the morning and later moved above 5% for the first time since 2023, according to the Associated Press. Expensive borrowing hurts rate-sensitive companies, while higher yields give investors a more attractive alternative to richly valued growth stocks.

The Federal Reserve’s September decision was the week’s main event. Futures markets were pricing roughly an 85% to 90% chance of a quarter-point rate increase on Wednesday after recent inflation data remained above the central bank’s 2% target. Traders were also preparing for new Fed projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s news conference, where the path beyond the initial hike may matter more than the decision itself.

There were no major earnings reports scheduled before Monday’s opening bell. Dave & Buster’s, ticker PLAY, was due to report after the close, while retail sales, import prices and the Fed decision were set to dominate the rest of the week.