Rothschild Redburn Sees 62% Downside for Nebius Shares

Rothschild & Co Redburn began coverage of Nebius Group with a Sell rating and an $84 price target. The target was 62.4% below the stock’s $223.54 opening price on Monday, September 21.

Analyst Alex Haissl’s central concern is whether Nebius can sustain its economics as it expands its AI cloud business. He also sees the shares as demanding a high valuation, according to coverage reported by The Fly.

The call contrasts with broader analyst expectations. A tally of 19 analysts showed an average target of $232.20, with recommendations ranging from two Strong Buys and nine Buys to six Holds and two Sells.

Nebius reported rapid growth in its latest quarter. Revenue reached $582.3 million in the second quarter, up 454% from a year earlier, while its AI cloud business generated $575 million.

The company also said it signed four major AI cloud deals in the quarter, each worth more than $1 billion in total contract value on average. It estimated those deals would repay associated capital and operating costs in one year and 10 months.

That growth requires heavy investment in data centers and computing equipment. Nebius said it had more than $40 billion in customer commitments and raised $775 million through its first secured financing in July, backed by deployed GPUs and contracted cash flows.

Haissl’s bearish thesis focuses on whether today’s contract economics will hold as Nebius scales, rather than on a lack of demand. He also warned that customers bringing more computing in-house could pressure the business, according to TipRanks’ account of the analyst’s views.

Investors will watch whether new capacity comes online on schedule and whether revenue and margins support the company’s expansion. Nebius has said most of its large second-quarter deals are tied to capacity expected later in 2026, with revenue contributions mainly in 2027.