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ECB interest rate decision

The European Central Bank sets the deposit rate for the euro area. It moves the euro, European bonds and the stocks of exporters to Europe, Turkish ones included.

We'll tell you 15 minutes before each release and when the figure is out.

Latest release

Thu, September 10, 2026 · 08:15

2.5%In line

Forecast 2.5%Previous 2.25%

  • Main refinancing rate2.65% / 2.65%
  • Marginal lending rate2.9%

Next release

Thu, October 29, 2026 · 09:15

11d 9h

No forecastPrevious 2.5%

    Recent releases (Deposit rate)

    2023-09-14: 4% · Forecast 3.75%Sep 232023-10-26: 4% · Forecast 4%2023-12-14: 4% · Forecast 4%2024-01-25: 4% · Forecast 4%Jan 242024-03-07: 4% · Forecast 4%2024-06-06: 3.75% · Forecast 3.75%2024-07-18: 3.75% · Forecast 3.75%Jul 242024-09-12: 3.5% · Forecast 3.5%2024-10-17: 3.25% · Forecast 3.25%2024-12-12: 3% · Forecast 3%Dec 242025-01-30: 2.75% · Forecast 2.75%2025-03-06: 2.5% · Forecast 2.5%2025-04-17: 2.25% · Forecast 2.25%Apr 252025-06-05: 2% · Forecast 2%2025-07-24: 2% · Forecast 2%2025-09-11: 2% · Forecast 2%Sep 252025-10-30: 2% · Forecast 2%2025-12-18: 2% · Forecast 2%2026-02-05: 2% · Forecast 2%Feb 262026-03-19: 2% · Forecast 2%2026-04-30: 2% · Forecast 2%2026-06-11: 2.25% · Forecast 2.25%Jun 262026-07-23: 2.25% · Forecast 2.25%2026-09-10: 2.5% · Forecast 2.5%Sep 262.5%
    ActualForecast

    Market memory

    39 releases over the last 5 years: how the related markets closed on each release day. A release after the close counts for the next session.

    EUR/USD

    Moved 0.46% on average on release days, against 0.35% on an ordinary day.

    • When above forecast (3x)+0.11% · up days 1/3
    • When in line (36x)+0.24% · up days 24/36

    Recent release days

    Sep 10, 26 +0.06%Jul 23, 26 +0.07%Jun 11, 26 0.00%Apr 30, 26 -0.28%Mar 19, 26 -0.65%Feb 5, 26 -0.12%

    Euro Stoxx 50

    Moved 0.96% on average on release days, against 0.79% on an ordinary day.

    • When above forecast (3x)+0.65% · up days 3/3
    • When in line (36x)-0.01% · up days 21/36

    Recent release days

    Sep 10, 26 -0.67%Jul 23, 26 -1.69%Jun 11, 26 +0.78%Apr 30, 26 +1.12%Mar 19, 26 -2.14%Feb 5, 26 -0.75%

    Past reactions are no indication of future price moves; other news on the same days may have moved prices too. Not investment advice.

    Past releases

    DatePeriodActualForecastPrevious
    Sep 10, 20262.5%2.5%2.25%
    Jul 23, 20262.25%2.25%2.25%
    Jun 11, 20262.25%2.25%2%
    Apr 30, 20262%2%2%
    Mar 19, 20262%2%2%
    Feb 5, 20262%2%2%
    Dec 18, 20252%2%2%
    Oct 30, 20252%2%2%
    Sep 11, 20252%2%2%
    Jul 24, 20252%2%2%
    Jun 5, 20252%2%2.25%
    Apr 17, 20252.25%2.25%2.5%
    Mar 6, 20252.5%2.5%2.75%
    Jan 30, 20252.75%2.75%3%
    Dec 12, 20243%3%3.25%
    Oct 17, 20243.25%3.25%3.5%
    Sep 12, 20243.5%3.5%3.75%
    Jul 18, 20243.75%3.75%3.75%
    Jun 6, 20243.75%3.75%4%
    Mar 7, 20244%4%4%
    Jan 25, 20244%4%4%
    Dec 14, 20234%4%4%
    Oct 26, 20234%4%4%
    Sep 14, 20234%3.75%3.75%

    More from Euro area

    ECB press conferenceEuro area inflationEuro area GDP growthEuro area PMIEuro area unemployment rate

    Data compiled by MakklerFinn; figures are published by the official bodies concerned. Times are New York time.

    For information only, not investment advice.