Novo’s 2030 Drug Ambitions Fail to Halt Share Slide

Novo Nordisk shares fell as much as 9% on September 21 after the drugmaker laid out plans to launch more than five potential blockbuster medicines by 2030. The targets did little to reassure investors about growth as competition from Eli Lilly intensifies.

At its London Capital Markets Day, Novo said revenue growth from 2026 through 2030 should track that of major pharmaceutical peers. It also aims to keep its operating margin broadly stable, but did not give a specific growth rate.

The company set a separate goal of more than 150 billion Danish kroner ($23 billion) in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035. That figure includes existing drug candidates and is not a sales forecast for 2030.

Novo also plans to expand capacity to serve ten times as many people with obesity using oral GLP-1 medicines, and to reach more than 60 million patients globally by 2030. The targets point to pills and new treatments as ways to broaden the business beyond semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic.

That shift matters because semaglutide faces key patent expirations in the early 2030s. Meanwhile, Lilly’s rival obesity and diabetes medicines have gained ground, raising questions about whether Novo can replace revenue and maintain its pricing power.

Novo announced a clinical result alongside the strategy: in a Phase III diabetes trial, its experimental CagriSema combination produced 12.4% weight loss, versus 9.1% for Lilly’s tirzepatide at the tested doses. The study compared CagriSema with a 5-milligram tirzepatide dose, so it does not settle the broader contest between the drugs.

Investors also learned that 13,000 employees had left Novo over the past year, including layoffs and voluntary departures. The share reaction suggests management must show how its pipeline plans translate into nearer-term sales, especially as it competes for patients and prepares for semaglutide’s eventual loss of exclusivity.