Home Turnover Hits a Decades Low as Home Depot Sees No Thaw

Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail says U.S. housing turnover remains at historic lows, with no clear sign of a rebound. Redfin found that just 2.77% of U.S. homes changed hands in the first nine months of 2025, the lowest rate in at least 30 years.

On the company’s latest earnings call, McPhail said turnover has stayed near 3% of the housing stock for four years. Historically, he said, activity bounced back relatively quickly after reaching that level. “There’s just no sign of an inflection point at this moment,” he told analysts.

The low turnover rate means fewer households are buying homes and starting the repairs or upgrades that often follow a move. Redfin’s measure counts homes sold as a share of the total housing stock; its 2025 figure covers January through September, not the current year.

Many owners have little financial reason to sell. Home Depot said in a December investor presentation that more than 70% of outstanding U.S. mortgages carried rates below 5%, while the average rate on those loans was 4.3%. Moving can mean replacing a cheaper mortgage with a more expensive one.

That reluctance matters to Home Depot, whose sales depend partly on home purchases and major renovations. In its latest quarter, customer transactions fell 1%, while spending per receipt rose. Industry data cited by the Associated Press showed smaller projects increased 1.5% from a year earlier, but bigger-ticket projects fell 2.1%.

Home Depot kept its fiscal 2026 outlook unchanged: it expects sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, with comparable sales flat to up 2%. The company said smaller projects were holding up, but affordability concerns and consumer uncertainty continued to weigh on larger jobs.

For investors, the housing freeze is a continuing headwind, not proof that Home Depot’s overall business is shrinking. The key signals to watch are home turnover, mortgage costs and whether customers return to larger renovation projects. McPhail said the company has yet to see a catalyst for housing activity to turn higher.