JNJ’s Rally Reflects Growth Beyond Its Stelara Decline

Johnson & Johnson shares returned about 58% over the 12 months through September 22, outperforming faster-growing rivals including Eli Lilly, according to Trefis’ peer comparison. The rally reflects investor confidence that growth from newer medicines can offset losses from the older drug Stelara.

Trefis put J&J’s trailing revenue growth at 8.1%, compared with 49.6% for Lilly. Lilly shares returned about 54% over the same period, while Merck was the only company in the six-stock comparison to post a larger return than J&J.

The revenue figures mask a sharp split inside J&J’s drug business. Stelara sales and competition from biosimilars weighed on results, while the company’s second-quarter release said the drug reduced Innovative Medicine’s operational growth by about 7.6 percentage points.

Other medicines helped counter that drag. J&J said second-quarter growth was led by cancer drugs including Darzalex and Carvykti, and by Tremfya in immunology. Innovative Medicine sales rose 6.8% on an operational basis in the quarter.

MedTech was a weaker part of the picture. Its operational sales grew 3.6% in the second quarter, below the 6.8% growth in Innovative Medicine, leaving device performance another test for the company’s overall momentum.

J&J raised its 2026 reported-sales outlook to a midpoint of $101.1 billion, which would mark its first year above $100 billion. The company also lifted its adjusted earnings-per-share outlook to $11.68 at the midpoint.

Investors will get a fresh check on that outlook when J&J reports third-quarter results on October 13. The key question is whether growth in newer medicines can keep offsetting Stelara’s decline, while MedTech gains ground.